The Next 200 Years: A Scenario For America And ... (2024)

Despite the overall optimism, Kahn does not suggest the path will be easy. He identifies "transitional problems" related to:

Believes success is contingent on continued technological and social adaptation. The next 200 years: a scenario for America and ...

Kahn envisions a world of 15 billion people who are "numerous, rich, and in control of the forces of nature," with a per capita gross world product of approximately $20,000 (in 1976 dollars). Despite the overall optimism, Kahn does not suggest

He suggests that rather than an inevitable collapse, the world is moving toward a post-industrial society where economic growth eventually plateaus at a high level of comfort and leisure. Refuting Neo-Malthusianism He suggests that rather than an inevitable collapse,

Sees disaster as a likely outcome unless major changes occur.

Holds high confidence that innovation will solve almost all material problems. Challenges of the Transition

He argues that "exhaustible" resources are actually plentiful. For instance, he points out that aluminum makes up 8% of the earth's crust, making claims of its total exhaustion mathematically improbable.